With the presidential election just a day away, I want to share some thoughts on it…
I mentioned a few weeks back that I think Biden will win.
I know this isn’t a crazy pick…
He’s leading in the polls…
And has multiple paths to win.
If he wins just one state out of Ohio, Florida and North Carolina, he’s probably gonna win.
So I think he will most likely win.
But if you want to look at the reasons why I think he will win, here’s my thoughts…
1. Trump has lost a lot of women voters
This has been shown over and over again in polls.
And I’ve seen it anecdotally with women I’ve talked to.
One of my friends who grew up in a Republican house, and would always vote for guys like Romney and John McCain, told me she just can’t vote for Trump.
She’s not a fan of Biden at all…
But Trump is just too “crazy” for her, so she’s voting for Biden.
This is a trend among a good number of women who Trump has lost.
And I think this will hurt him.
2. Independents will lean to Biden
I mentioned in a previous email that I like to use my parents as a bell weather for elections.
They’re the type of people who determine elections.
Why?
Cause they’re independents in a swing state (Ohio).
They don’t follow political news online.
They don’t listen to talk radio.
They basically watch 2 or 3 of the debates and then make a decision.
Over the years, they’ve voted for Bill Clinton, Bush, Obama, and then last election my dad voted for Trump and my mom voted for Hillary.
So they’re all over the map.
And like I said they are the type of people who determine elections.
Both my parents from what I can gather are voting for Biden this time around.
And their reason is similar to the woman above that I talked to…
Trump is just too much for them. And they were willing to put up with Trump’s antics before because things were good.
But now that everything has fallen apart with the pandemic (and my dad got laid off because of it) their tune has changed.
So they’ll prolly pull the lever for Biden tomorrow.
3. The pandemic was a win for Biden
If the election would have been held in February before COVID hit, I think Trump would have cruised to an easy re-election.
But the pandemic has shined a light on two of Trump’s biggest flaws…
He’s not a good leader…
And he struggles with empathy…
And during a crisis this is what a country needs.
When everyone is panicking, we need someone to look to for confidence.
We need someone to empathize with us and tell us it’s gonna be alright.
But that’s not Trump’s strength…
He has one playbook, and that’s throwing rocks at his enemies.
Which works incredibly well when things are good.
But that doesn’t work when shit is hitting the fan.
People want a strong leader in those situations.
And they want to feel like he understands what they’re going through.
And Trump is incapable of doing that on a sustained basis.
Also…
Before COVID hit, Biden’s whole “I’m the adult in the room” message was incredibly boring.
He was like vanilla ice cream.
No big ideas.
Nothing sexy.
But since the pandemic hit, this message has become a strength for him.
When everything is falling apart…
And people are losing jobs…
And people are dying everyday…
The idea of a steady handed, responsible adult all of a sudden becomes really appealing.
Even if he is as boring as wheat toast.
So that’s my 2 cents.
I think Biden will win.
If you have any thoughts on what you think will happen with the election, feel free to reply to this and let me know.
– Justin
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