Back on March 11th, I made a prediction on my Facebook page that the unemployment rate was going to skyrocket because of corona.
This was BEFORE the NBA shocked everyone and canceled their season…
And before restaurants, salons and every other business were forced to close.
People weren’t grasping how big of a deal this was going to be.
So I laid it out in a Facebook post.
I talked about how businesses we’re going to lose all their revenue and start laying people off left and right.
At the time it seemed a bit crazy…
Cause nothing had actually happened yet.
But everything I wrote in that post has come true.
We’re sitting with an unemployment rate that is worse than the ’08 recession.
And no real end in sight…
With that said…
I have another prediction for ya.
And that’s what I think will happen over the next 6-12 months (specifically for the world of online marketing).
Luckily for us, our industry was not hit like most brick-and-mortar businesses were hit.
For most it’s business as usual.
In fact, a lot of people I know are actually doing BETTER now than ever before (since more people are online buying stuff).
However…
I think the fallout for us will be felt later on.
Mostly because if you sell in big markets (health, financial etc…) then your average buyer isn’t going to have as much money as usual.
And that’s only going to get worse.
Currently the average Joe who lost his job is still getting unemployment PLUS the extra $600 a week for pandemic unemployment.
That extra $600 a week can’t last forever.
Which is why the government is opening things back up.
They want people to get back to work.
So they can stop printing money.
Which is smart…
But I think it’s only the beginning of a long grind.
The economy will ONLY start flourishing again when people start spending like they normally do.
And that’s not gonna happen anytime soon.
Are you going to be at a restaurant 2-3x a week?
Are you going to be on an airplane this month?
Are you going to be at a bar on Friday night?
I know some people will.
But it won’t be anything like how we previously lived our life.
I think that’s going to take time.
Which is why I think we will feel the effects of this over the next 6-12 months in our business.
Once the $600 a week stimulus goes away…
People are going to have a lot less money.
And the people who are out of work, are going to have a tough time finding a new job.
Why?
Because the economy contracted.
It’s simply a smaller economy now.
Instead of having 500 restaurants in Austin, we might have 300 after all this.
And instead of Delta flying 200 flights a day, it might be flying 100.
Our entire economy is built on people doing things and spending money.
And that is not just going to “flip on” like a light switch.
It’s going to take a while.
Which is why I think it’s going to be a grind for 6-12 months (probably even longer).
Honestly I’d love to be wrong on this one…
And have the economy roar back this year…
But if I’m being realistic this is what I see coming.
It’s time to “embrace the grind”.
– Justin
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